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1.8 MILLION NEW FORECLOSURES: HOUSE PRICES TO FALL

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Nelson R. Self View Drop Down
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    Posted: Feb 18 2010 at 6:47am
CITY STAFF COMMENTS -- CITY COUNCIL HOUSING SUBCOMMITTEE MEETING (EXCERPTS) -- FEBRUARY 5, 2010 

HUD Neighborhood Stabilization Program - Round One Update

As reported earlier, Mr. Adkins explained there will be a shift from demo to acquisition and rehabilitation. The theory is to stabilize neighborhoods. He is working with Fannie Mae, HUD and the largest REO realtor to find homes for purchase and rehab. He explained the process that starts with a Cost Estimate Report, includes a Rehab Feasibility Analysis, and Appraisal. Homes acquired and rehabbed could be incentive homes. If the program does not get all its money back from the rehab, that’s OK. HUD recommends you lose $75,000 per home. When you take an empty house and possibly turn it into the last vacant house on the street; putting a taxpaying family in the house, HUD feels these are investments in the neighborhood and community. They will tell you if you are not losing money, you are not doing a good job. There was discussion about housing stock and looking at three or four bedroom $100,000 homes for this project. HUD will carry a second mortgage to put better housing stock in the neighborhood. Middletown has done some of these, but not without some criticism. Maple Park is a good example with better quality homes and a nicer neighborhood within a neighborhood. The policies need to be well wrapped and understood.

STANDARD & POORS:  1.8 Million Flood of New Home Foreclosures Projected
 
by Alyssa Katz, February 17, 2010 @ 9:45 A.M.
 
Heartened by the recent rise in home prices? Don't get too comfortable. Standard & Poor's, the credit-rating agency that tells investors what mortgage-backed securities are worth, reports that the increase was just an illusion. It predicts the nation is about to see a deluge of new foreclosures that will drive real estate values back down.

Blame the "shadow inventory" – nearly 1.8 million homes that are on the road to foreclosure but for all kinds of reasons haven't gotten there yet.

Many homeowners have fallen behind on their mortgages or stopped paying, but foreclosure has not yet arrived. Mortgage servicers, the folks who send you the bills and file for foreclosure when you can't pay them, are overwhelmed. Courts, too, are backed up. Mortgage modifications and foreclosure moratoriums have put off the day of reckoning for borrowers, but not forever. And unemployment is sabotaging more homeowners every day.

Out of more than $1.6 trillion in existing mortgages that were packaged into mortgage-backed securities by Wall Street, some $425 billion worth are extremely late on their payments, and therefore likely to go into foreclosure. Only a fraction of borrowers who fall seriously behind are able to catch up, with the help of a loan modification. And even then the majority end up falling behind again. That amount of bad mortgage debt has been spiking up every month, slowing down just a little thanks to the government's Home Affordable Modification Program, but still continuing to rise.

Meanwhile, even as the amount of unpaid mortgage debt rises, the number of foreclosed, bank-owned homes for sale has been holding fairly steady. That tells us that the number of foreclosures for sale on the market is actually just a sliver of all the ones that are really out there. S&P's chilling conclusion: "Overall, it is our opinion that recent positive housing reports should not be construed as a sign that the distress in the residential housing market is abating, but rather should be attributed to the temporarily limited supply of homes on the market."

The bottom line: just counting the homeowners who are currently behind on their mortgages, along with the existing number of foreclosures for sale, at the current pace it will take nearly three years to sell all the foreclosures out there. That doesn't include all the borrowers who haven't fallen behind yet but are going to, because of unemployment or because their Option ARM payments are spiking up or because
they just decide to stop paying.

The shadow inventory is equal to half the size of the entire market of homes for sale. When it starts getting listed, expect home prices in areas with lots of foreclosures to plummet. Yes, more.
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Hermes View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hermes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 18 2010 at 8:23am
The American people are and have been in trouble financially. I think all this "concern" by DC is nothing but hoopla. If Obama or anyone in DC cared they would not be bailing out the friggin big banks,they would be bailing out the people. Can you imagine what $trillions of dollars could have done for the working class in this country ? Does anyone remember when Bush was walking around promoting home ownership ? How quickly we forget.
No more democrats no more republicans,vote Constitution Party !!
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wasteful View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wasteful Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 18 2010 at 8:47am
Yes how quickly we forget.
 

Bill Clinton's drive to increase homeownership went way too far

Posted by: Peter Coy on February 27

Add President Clinton to the long list of people who deserve a share of the blame for the housing bubble and bust. A recently re-exposed document shows that his administration went to ridiculous lengths to increase the national homeownership rate. It promoted paper-thin downpayments and pushed for ways to get lenders to give mortgage loans to first-time buyers with shaky financing and incomes. It’s clear now that the erosion of lending standards pushed prices up by increasing demand, and later led to waves of defaults by people who never should have bought a home in the first place.

President Bush continued the practices because they dovetailed with his Ownership Society goals, and of course Congress was strongly behind the push. But Clinton and his administration must shoulder some of the blame.

In writing this blog entry, I’m following the lead of Joseph R. Mason, who is a finance professor at Drexel University’s LeBow College of Business, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and a consultant at Criterion Economics. Here is a link to a piece that he wrote on Feb. 26.

The Clinton-era document that Mason cites—“The National Homeownership Strategy: Partners in the American Dream”—was hiding in plain sight on the website of the Department of Housing & Urban Development until last year, when according to Mason it was removed (probably because the housing bust made it seem embarrassing to the department). Mason credits Joshua Rosner of Graham Fisher & Co. with saving a copy of it before it was expunged.

The National Homeownership Strategy began in 1994 when Clinton directed HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros to come up with a plan, and Cisneros convened what HUD called a "historic meeting" of private and public housing-industry organizations in August 1994. The group eventually produced a plan, of which Mason sent me a PDF of Chapter 4, the one that argues for creative measures to promote homeownership.

The very worst idea in the plan, which fortunately never gained approval, was to let first-time homebuyers freely tap their IRA and 401(k) retirement-savings plans with no penalty to scrounge up a downpayment. That, HUD estimated, would have "benefited" 600,000 families in the first five years.

Plenty of other ideas in the plan did become reality, though. Knowing what we know now about the housing bust, the earnest language in the document seems faintly ridiculous. Here's an excerpt. Read it closely and you can see the seeds of disaster being planted:

For many potential homebuyers, the lack of cash available to accumulate the required downpayment and closing costs is the major impediment to purchasing a home. Other households do not have sufficient available income to to make the monthly payments on mortgages financed at market interest rates for standard loan terms. Financing strategies, fueled by the creativity and resources of the private and public sectors, should address both of these financial barriers to homeownership.

Note the praise for "creativity." That kind of creativity in stretching boundaries we could use less of. Mason puts it well: "It strikes me as reckless to promote home sales to individuals in such constrained financial predicaments."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LMAO Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 18 2010 at 9:03am
Took a few thousnad loss on my house to get the hell out of Middletucky.
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Bill View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 18 2010 at 9:39am
a few thousand loss?  That would be a no-brainer!  If I sold now I would probably lose $20k compared to what I paid 4 years ago.  I had the misfortune of buying at the worst time of price inflation.
 
Much like the immigration problem, blame for this mess goes to both political parties and all sorts of business interests.
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Nelson R. Self View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nelson R. Self Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Feb 18 2010 at 9:58am
HUD Neighborhood Stabilization Program - Round One:  Comparison of Strategies
 
Community Revitalization Consultant/Staff Plan (11/08)       Nelson Self's Concept(10/27/08)
 
City Purchases/Rehabs/Resells 20 Vacant Foreclosed Homes      City Assists Purchasers of 70 Vacant, Foreclosed Homes
City Engages in Real Estate Market                                              City Provides Secondary Loan Financing for Purchasers
City Assumes Property Management Function                             City Provides Technical Rehab Assistance for Purchasers
City Incurs Property Tax, Insurance & Maintenance Costs           City Works with Purchasers, Lenders & Realtors
City Projects Losing Up to $75,000 per Home                               Purchasers Use FHA 203k & Other Bank Purchase/Rehab Loans
Residential Property Demolition - 50+ Structures                         Residential Property Demolition - 50 Structures
Down Payment/Closing Cost Assistance - 35+ Purchasers           Down Payment/Closing Cost Assistance - 70 Purchasers
 
You be the judge?  Which is the most cost effective and productive?  Why has senior City staff waited one year to begin their costly acquisition/rehabilitation/resale activities?  I guess that it doesn't matter as HUD allows grantees like the City of Middletown to lose up to $75,000 per housing transaction?  As a taxpayer, how does this logic strike you?
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