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A bRIDGE TOO FAR- $500 MILLION IN COSTS

Printed From: MiddletownUSA.com
Category: Middletown City Government
Forum Name: City Manager
Forum Description: Discuss the city manager administration including all city departments.
URL: http://www.middletownusa.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=6268
Printed Date: Nov 21 2024 at 8:15pm


Topic: A bRIDGE TOO FAR- $500 MILLION IN COSTS
Posted By: Dean
Subject: A bRIDGE TOO FAR- $500 MILLION IN COSTS
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 2:17pm
The city and its residents will be paying nearly $500 Million for EPA guidelines and asphalt within 20 years. With such debt, companies, residents, and those living in town, will avoid having these expenses to pay.

How does an aged city attract new residents an new businesses, when you move in, you have a city debt of $500 Million to pay in 20 years. They move to a newer community that doesn't have aged infrastructure and neglected streets. A dog park is a tough sell to compensate for $500 Million expense to be paid. Of this, nearly $165 Million for road repair other cities don't have.

http://citymanagermiddletown.com/2016/02/11/water-and-sewer-part-1/" rel="nofollow - Water and Sewer (Part 1)
http://citymanagermiddletown.com/2016/02/11/water-and-sewer-part-1/" rel="nofollow -

One of the many areas that we need to look at closely is our water and sewer infrastructure.   There are several things going on here.  I could write out all of this in one blog post, but you’d have to take a day off work to read through everything going on.  I’m going to present this in pieces, so please don’t freak out until we get to the end of the explanation… yes, it is going to be expensive….

First, we have combined sewers in many older parts of the City.  This is not unusual for cities of our age.  It was the way sewer systems were designed across the country during that era. We have been negotiating with the EPA for several years on how to correct the problem over time.  In Cincinnati, the problem will require billions of dollars to fix.  We do not have the final negotiated sewer fix and therefore, the final dollar cost, to make those renovations in Middletown, but for planning purposes, our current estimate is somewhere around $120 million.  Part of the EPA negotiations will focus on what needs to be done to make repairs.  The other part will focus on how long the EPA will give us to make the changes.  Typical other agreements have been somewhere in the 20+ year range.   All of this is in flux and negotiation at this time, and the final dollar number, the style of changes required, and the time table for completion are all unknown at this time.  All that we know right now is that sometime probably sooner than later, we will come to an agreement with the EPA to resolve this issue.   Ultimately, the users of the system will pay for the EPA required upgrades over the negotiated time period.

Second, much of the water and sewer pipes under the older parts of the City are 50+ years old.   The City completed repairs to 91 water mains during 2015.  We know that at least some of those older pipes are at the end of their useful life and will need to be replaced.  My guess is that there are 50 year old pipes that are about done and other pipes that are 75 years old that might still be in decent shape.  We are starting the process now to decide the best way to evaluate the older water and sewer distribution system (the pipes) and determine which sections need to be replaced and when.  Developing that process and then implementing an inspection and evaluation process will take more than a year to complete.   Until we develop and complete that process, we are utilizing the age in years of the existing pipe system to develop a beginning model of what needs to be replaced and a cost associated with replacing worn out water and sewer pipes.  Using only the age of the pipes as an estimating tool, we believe there are about $242 million in upgrades that will be required in the water distribution and the sewer collection system.  When we evaluate the pipes properly, that number may go up or down with actual pipe conditions.

Third, our Water Treatment Plant was built in 1971 and the Wastewater Treatment (Sewer) Plant is over 50 years old.  The Wastewater Treatment Plant is going to need a major overhaul in the next decade or so and the Water Treatment Plant will need continuing maintenance to remain viable for the next 50 years.  This will include upgrades in equipment, upgrades in technology, upgrades in the buildings themselves, etc.   We have estimated those repairs to be in the neighborhood of $92 million.  Timing, bidding, and the final scope of work will all influence the final numbers, but again, it is a beginning model to evaluate how to bring our water and sewer system up to modern, sustainable standards.

Finally, there are a few areas of town that could see new development if we added water and sewer infrastructure to support the new development.  We’ve added $2 million in new infrastructure to our overall water and sewer estimate to open those areas to future development, which in turn, means new families and/or jobs in the City.  In addition, our quick analysis of piping replacement suggests that up to $25 million in paving would be completed as part of the ongoing water and sewer pipe upgrades.  We will have to repave the roads we tear up when we replace the water and sewer pipes.

Keep in mind that every single number above is an estimate derived from a model and that none of these dollar numbers have been established.   This is for planning purposes only.  I want to create a plan that sustains all of our water and sewer infrastructure into the future.   This is Part 1.   Let me get through the other parts and then you can cut loose and comment freely.  If  you do it now… I’ll likely be answering your questions over the next several posts anyway…   Please be patient.




Replies:
Posted By: Vivian Moon
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 3:34pm
Ahh yes, that big Hot Pink Elephant has arrived and is now standing in the lobby of City Hall surrounded by 500 million peanuts. If you think that City Hall will be content with only putting a few bucks on your water bill to cover these cost you better think again. Your water bill will look more like your Duke Energy bill before this project is completed.

People and bussinesses will leave the city and therefore fewer and fewer people will be left to pay this bill.
But wasn't that City Hall's long range plan anyway? Get rid of all THOSE other people.....





 






Posted By: Dean
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 4:19pm
Main Street revitalization doesn't erase:

+ $500 Million in EPA and street repair expense
+ Massive property tax increase with school buildings
+ Central Connection tax (Sr Citizens)
+ Possibility of 2% income tax
+ Unsettled cuts/ restructuring in public safety
+ Southwest Ohio declining population
 


Posted By: Factguy
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 5:32pm
Plus the real House Of Cards. Tree planting and equestrian and bike paths won't matter.

AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS)

-NYSE
Watchlist
2.16 Down 0.04(1.82%) 4:03PM EST
Income StatementGet Income Statement for: < autocomplete="off" ="yui-ac-" -rapid_p="1" name="s" id="pageTicker" size="10">
View: Annual Data | https://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AKS" rel="nofollow - Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
Period EndingDec 31, 2014Dec 31, 2013Dec 31, 2012
Total Revenue 6,505,700   5,570,400   5,933,700  
Cost of Revenue6,007,700  5,107,800  5,539,100  

Gross Profit 498,000   462,600   394,600  


Operating Expenses

Research Development -   -   -  

Selling General and Administrative156,700  136,700  330,700  

Non Recurring -   -   -  

Others201,900  190,100  192,000  



Total Operating Expenses -   -   -  


Operating Income or Loss 139,400   135,800   (128,100)


Income from Continuing Operations

Total Other Income/Expenses Net(21,100)(1,400)6,200  

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes118,300  134,400  (121,900)

Interest Expense144,700  127,400  86,700  

Income Before Tax(26,400)7,000  (208,600)

Income Tax Expense7,700  (10,400)790,000  

Minority Interest(62,800)(64,200)(28,700)



Net Income From Continuing Ops(96,900)(46,800)(1,027,300)


Non-recurring Events

Discontinued Operations -   -   -  

Extraordinary Items -   -   -  

Effect Of Accounting Changes -   -   -  

Other Items -   -   -  


Net Income (96,900) (46,800) (1,027,300)
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments -   -   -  

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares (96,900) (46,800) (1,027,300)



Posted By: spiderjohn
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 5:38pm
Someone please help me---where is MainStreet revitalization going to take us?
There is imo nothing on Main Street or broad street worth saving, especially if you don't own property or live there(and few actually do).
After 30 years of this black hole, can we finally let it go?
Obviously not.

Thankfully I bailed on a central ave business--the road construction would have killed it if I had stayed. I own two other properties on that street and can't give them away.
I realize that the roads and sewer fix are long past necessary, and I respect mr.A for FINALLY taking them on and changing a few Donham faces.
But when will we support the rest of the citizens and long-term businesses before they die of starvation? Will we ever become ONE community instead of competing segments?

We simply can't price everyone capable and contributing out of town imo
I really want to believe and contribute, However I just can't fit in to any of this.


Posted By: acclaro
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 8:32pm
Middletown and Hamilton are both doing exactly the same plan with downtown efforts, incubators, buildings which can be salvaged and cycled into other usage, but suffer from anemic population growth. Perhaps they both are using the same urban consulting firm. And both have the added hassle and unattractive delays with commercial trains flowing through town, delaying traffic and moving old industry material. When driving through the historic area of Hamilton one can get stuck for ten minutes or longer. There is no market demand big enough for either Hamilton nor Middletown to be successful.

Hang tight sj. Main Street revitalization is the glue to convince you and others, there is hope something might happen, than complete exasperation the best days are long gone. Where there is revitalization and buzz, there is hope, providing stability. Without it, there is despair and chaos, creating a panic exit. Its better to keep the believers to pay for the massive expense, than leaving behind just a handful. Revitalization harnesses believers with hope.

Speaking of hope, better hope its a different negotiator with the EPA than the one who sold Weatherwax for so little, and gave many buildings away downtown for a buck after investing a million or more. A lost leader for revitalization.   



-------------
'An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.' - Winston Churchill


Posted By: Bill
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 9:04pm
Does anyone have an educated guess of what a "bad" case scenario might look like for AK Steel in the next couple years? (something that might happen but not unrealistic worst case scenario)  If the Midd Works shut down how wide would radius for impact on property values be?  


Posted By: Analytical
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 9:22pm
The combined deleterious impact of misguided local government priorities and wasteful outlays of millions in capital resources, particularly over the past decade, has expedited the decline of our community.  Short-sighted city council members and top city staff were/are the architects of this malaise.   I can no longer be an advocate of the ones most accountable.  The damage is done.


Posted By: Dean
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 9:27pm
I believe what is most likely is Ashland site would close, as its more closely redundant to capacity AKS has with its purchase.

What is most likely is AKS would be acquired, and pieces liquidated. With the global slowdown and stock market collapsing, and the dollar high against the yen, more AP steel will be imported.

Trump, if elected, would impose tariffs, which the US steel manufacturers would desire. Double digit growth in revenues is doubtful. Flat to 2-3% realistic.

If Works closed, Middletown would be Detroit.   


Posted By: Factguy
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 10:00pm
EPA compliance costing Cincinnati more than Brent Spence Bridge rebuild. A Lexus car payment monthly for the home owner. Why own a house?

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2014/12/16/sewer-costs-hamilton-county-epa/20494741/" rel="nofollow - http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2014/12/16/sewer-costs-hamilton-county-epa/20494741/


Posted By: acclaro
Date Posted: Feb 11 2016 at 10:46pm
The city Master Plan indicates .33% of Middletown's sewers are combined, meaning expensive modification. Also, Go East, Go East end, because the expense is far less. If its less there in the newer sewer line area, its cheaper in the newer greenfield communities such as Mason, West Chester, Springboro, and other communities.
S
ANITARY
S
EWER
S
YSTEM
ƒ
Combined Sewers.
Middletown, being an older industrial city, still has combined sewers (i.e.,
sewers that carry both sanitary and storm water)
that account for approximately one-third of the
entire system. Many new lines have been built, part
icularly in the east end. However, most new
sanitary lines flow into the combined system prio
r to reaching the Wastewater Treatment Plant at
the southwest corner of the City. Nine overflow
s to the Great Miami River are spread along the
main interceptor from Manchester Avenue sout
h to Lafayette Avenue. Additionally, a 48”
process sewer from AK Steel is interconnected to
the City’s combined sewer in the Verity
Parkway/Yankee Road area.
ƒ
Long Term Control Plan.
A Long Term Control Plan (LTCP) has been developed (submitted
but not yet approved), separately with Ohio Environmental Protection Agency’s (OEPA)
guidance, that will mean millions of dollars in
upgrades to the Middletown sewer system. The
goal of OEPA is to greatly reduce the impact of
the sewer overflows into the Great Miami River.
OEPA was recently holding up permits for a propo
sed new residential subdivision that would add
flow to the combined system until a final LTCP wa
s at least preliminary approved or a separate
study put together that could prove that no additi
onal pollutants would potentially be added to the
river. This development now has approval to
proceed under the OEPA “approval credit program”
which requires that they remove 5 times the amount of storm water in the system above the
projected sanitary flow amount to be added by the development.
This LTCP may have a significant impact on future
growth of the City as the existing relatively
low sewer rates will have to be dramatically in
creased. An increase of
as much as 60% has been
projected for the next 10 years. The City does have a stepped rate system both for sewer and
water users that greatly benefits larger users.
This is very unusual today as most systems have
either a flat rate or a stepped rate that discourag
es larger users, especially for water users. These
reduced rates for larger users have had little imp
act in recent years as an economic development
tool. A slow flattening of the sewer rates should be
considered, especially in light of the dramatic
sewer rate increases expected. A gradual flatteni
ng of the stepped rate system currently in place
should also be considered to avoid financial hard
ship on existing large sewer users. Individual
sewer agreements could be considered as an op
tion with reduced rates given for “job credits”.
Another consideration for increasing rates would be
to set up a split-rate system. A higher rate
for those connecting to the main interceptor sy
stem (where all the overflows to the river are
connected) and a lower rate for those connecting to the East Middletown system where no
overflows exist. The legality and political fallout
of this option would need further study.




-------------
'An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.' - Winston Churchill


Posted By: Cooper
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 10:17am
Master Plan "Take-aways" in Infrastructure caption-

1) You will be paying a monthly bill 2-3 times larger than premium Direct TV or TWC Deluxe package per home.
2) City indicates the sewer problem will stymie new business and residential development. Property values won't rise.
3) City made decision on split rate payment. Live in east end, you pay less than those west of 75. Motivation for Nicholas Place and Fred Burns LLC to build east, and motivation for Grau involved with Manchester to say, forget about it, same with the microbrewery.
4) Cheaper to live in newer subdivisions and towns where sewer infrastructure is new, not old, like Middletown. Welcome to Mason and West Chester new resident.


Posted By: Vivian Moon
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 11:29am
Cooper

In 1991 my monthly water bill was $12.57 for water, sewer and trash
In 2016 my monthly water bill was $43.98

City Hall has been talking about this problem since 1970.
All the increases over the years were used for the new subdivisions and nothing was spent on upgrades in the 100 year old neighborhoods in the city. City Hall can't do a split rate system now...talk about a law suite!

City Hall has known for years that the final EPA hammer was coming down on them in 2016.
That' why Middletown made the big push for all the extra bond issues before this EPA deadline.










Posted By: Cooper
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 11:49am
Ms. Moon, AKS and the Atrium were driven to move out by 75 not only to be close to the highway, and the better infrastructure maintenance by Warren County, but by lower sewer and water rates which they will have compared to their previous locations.

If there is no split rate plan for the east end, the developer of Nicholas Place may want to be reconsidering his monthly lease rate and projected occupancy. Austin Reed exit is doing well in a small township having new underground infrastructure which Middletown doesn't have.

Clark Schaeffer and Hacket. It wasn't just location that drove them there. It was savings from Middletown costs for EPA requirements. Breihel has businesses fleeing for the same reason, and physicians having their practices absorbed by large Dayton and Cincinnati providers that have deeper pockets to absorb the expenses.  


Posted By: Cooper
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 11:56am
Ms. Moon, you might want to contact him. He has a good reputation.




Posted By: Factguy
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 12:39pm
TIF districts and segments will allow for split fee and cap on income taxes. Rowan and Martin's Laugh In....Sock It To Me Baby that live outside the TIF.  


Posted By: Vivian Moon
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 1:49pm

Cooper
I remember my first paycheck. My grandfather took me to the bank and taught me the first lesson of money.
He informed me that the first 10% of my bring home pay had to go into a savings account. The second part was to take care of my needs. And if I had anything left over only then could I spend money on my wants. 
No credit cards in those days. If you couldn't pay for it with cash then you really didn’t need it...period.

Every expense was planned for in the household budget if not it was paid for from the savings account. Do you remember your mother putting money into her Xmas Club account at the local bank each week? 

As I look at our society today it seems that we can no long distinguish the difference between our NEEDS and WANTS and therefore we put everything on the credit card and hope we can pay for it all at a later date.
How do you think this new plan is working? All you need to do is look at the national debt to find the answer.
City Hall needs to focus on the NEEDS of our community before we waste more money on WANTS as they have in the past.



Posted By: Cooper
Date Posted: Feb 12 2016 at 2:43pm
Ms. Moon, your comment about frugality and commonsense economics made me think what is the all-time biggest blunder made in city hall history. There have been many, but here's a list on the fly-

a)  Discontinuing the % of dedicated funds in 1986 that was just temporary to pay city employee salaries
b)  Driving AKS sr management out of town based upon reputation and taxes
c)  Watching Square D leave w/o knowledge what was happening
d)  Giving AKS and Atrium $10 Mm to locate around the interstate, all paid for by citizens
e)  Having section 8 vouchers flooding Middletown
 f)   Doing nothing to bring in business thinking it was all taken care of with Armco around
g)  Wire tapping attorney client discussions in jail
h)  Buying buildings downtown given away
i)  Selling Weatherwax
j)  Holding airport

Just a few that come to mind. When Armco's management left, so did Middletown, but the decline in infrastructure killed the city. PS- mother collected S & H green stamps and made all children pay half for monthly teeth braces expense and college books. When its your money spent, rarely does it get dumped down the drain. When another's, most don't mind.  



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